Preparing correctional settings for the next pandemic: a modeling study of COVID-19 outbreaks in two high-income countries.

Introduction: Correctional facilities are high-priority settings for coordinated public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. These facilities are at high risk of disease transmission due to close contacts between people in prison and with the wider community. People in prison are also vulnerable to severe disease given their high burden of co-morbidities. Methods: We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the effect of various public health interventions, including vaccination, on the mitigation of COVID-19 outbreaks, applying it to prisons in Australia and Canada. Results: We found that, in the absence of any intervention, an outbreak would occur and infect almost 100% of people in prison within 20 days of the index case. However, the rapid rollout of vaccines with other non-pharmaceutical interventions would almost eliminate the risk of an outbreak. Discussion: Our study highlights that high vaccination coverage is required for variants with high transmission probability to completely mitigate the outbreak risk in prisons.

MPox Skin Lesions.

Mpox is caused by the Monkeypox virus, which belongs to the Orthopoxvirus genus and Poxviridae family. The Monkeypox virus was first identified as a cause of disease in humans in the 1970s in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Mpox was considered endemic in several African countries. A global outbreak of Mpox was first recognized in Europe in May 2022 and was declared a public health emergency of international concern on July 23, 2022. The first reported Mpox case in Indonesia was in October 2022 which was identified as an imported case, there were no new confirmed Mpox cases until 13 October 2023. Since then there were 72 cases of confirmed Mpox cases in Indonesia by the end of 2023, distributed across 6 provinces, mostly in the Java island.We present two different spectrums of Mpox skin lesions in patients living with HIV, with a positive polymerase chain reaction test for Mpox. The first patient is a 48-year-old male, who developed a maculopapular lesion, that was initially noticed on the face, the lesions were then spread to the back and hand. He identifies as men who have sex with men and living with HIV for the past 18 years. There were no lesions on the genitalia or mucosa. The second patient is a 28-year-old male, the initial symptom was fever, followed by skin lesions after around 1 week of fever. The lesion initially appears as pustules on the face and then spreads throughout the whole body, the lesions also grow larger and become pseudo-pustules and ulcers. There were also mucosal involvements in the mouth, making oral intake difficult. This patient also identified as men who have sex with men with multiple partners, HIV status was not known at the initial presentation. HIV screening was done with positive results.

COVID-19 and climate change concerns: Matters arising.

Until the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, developing countries, especially countries in the African continent, battled with the impact of climate change on the food value-chain systems and general livelihood. In this study, we discuss climate change concerns post-COVID-19 and argue that the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the vulnerabilities of most developing and emerging economies. This has heightened political tensions and unrest among such developing nations. We suggest enhancement and intensification of efficient and effective locally engineered adaptation strategies in the post-COVID-19 era for countries that have been susceptible to the impact of climate change and other recent shocks.

Investigation and response to an outbreak of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup Y ST-1466 urogenital infections, Australia.

Abstract: In 2023, an increased number of urogenital and anorectal infections with Neisseria meningitis serogroup Y (MenY) were reported in New South Wales (NSW). Whole genome sequencing (WGS) found a common sequence type (ST-1466), with limited sequence diversity. Confirmed outbreak cases were NSW residents with a N. meningitidis isolate matching the cluster sequence type; probable cases were NSW residents with MenY isolated from a urogenital or anorectal site from 1 July 2023 without WGS testing. Of the 41 cases, most were men (n = 27), of whom six reported recent contact with a female sex worker. Five cases were men who have sex with men and two were female sex workers. Laboratory alerts regarding the outbreak were sent to all Australian jurisdictions through the laboratories in the National Neisseria Network. Two additional states identified urogenital MenY ST-1466 infections detected in late 2023. Genomic analysis showed all MenY ST-1466 sequences were interspersed, suggestive of an Australia-wide outbreak. The incidence of these infections remains unknown, due to varied testing and reporting practices both within and across jurisdictions. Isolates causing invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Australia are typed, and there has been no MenY ST-1466 IMD recorded in Australia to end of March 2024. Concerns remain regarding the risk of IMD, given the similarity of these sequences with a MenY ST-1466 IMD strain causing a concurrent outbreak in the United States of America.

The first confirmed outbreak of chikungunya reported in Timor-Leste, 2024.

Abstract: Timor-Leste is a mountainous, half-island nation with a population of 1.3 million, which shares a land border with Indonesia and is 550 km from Darwin, Australia. Since independence in 2002, Timor-Leste has achieved significant development; however, high levels of poverty remain. Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is endemic in over 100 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and in the Americas. It is transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes aegypti or Ae. albopictus mosquitoes, which are present in Timor-Leste and which contribute to annual rainy-season dengue virus (DENV) outbreaks. Symptomatic people typically suffer from acute onset of fever, usually accompanied by severe arthritis or arthralgia. Joint pain can be debilitating for several days, and may sometimes last for weeks, months or years. Unlike DENV infection which has significant mortality, most people recover completely. Between 2002 and 2023, there were 26 cases of CHIKV notified in Australia who acquired their infection in Timor-Leste; however, laboratory testing capability for CHIKV in Timor-Leste only became available in 2021 using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The first locally diagnosed case was notified in November 2023. In January 2024, an outbreak of CHIKV was recognised in Timor-Leste for the first time, with 195 outbreak cases reported during 1-31 January 2024; all were PCR positive. There were no cases hospitalised, and no deaths. The median age of cases was 17 years (range 1-76 years); 51% were males. Cases were reported across the country; most (88/195) were from Dili, although the highest incidence was seen in the neighbouring municipality of Ermera (monthly incidence rate of 58.8 cases per 100,000 population). This first reported outbreak of CHIKV in Timor-Leste highlights the need for improved mosquito-borne illness control and response strategies, including minimising breeding sites and promoting early presentation for treatment and differential diagnosis from DENV, and consideration of the deployment of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, particularly as they have shown to reduce the transmission of CHIKV, DENV and Zika virus, all of which pose threats in Timor-Leste.

Protection enhancement strategies of potential outbreaks during Hajj.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assist governments and organizers of mass gathering events in reviewing existing preventive measures for disease outbreaks to inform the adoption of enhanced strategies for risk reduction and impacts on public health. DESIGN: A cross-sectional, quantitative, descriptive study. SETTING: This study was conducted in a mass gathering of Hajj, an annual religious event in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. PARTICIPANTS: A convenience sample of 70 personnel working in government ministries of Saudi Arabia (Ministry of Health, Ministry of Hajj, and Ministry of Interior) and the Saudi Red Crescent Authority involved in health management in Hajj, including policy formulation and implementation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Perception and knowledge of health risks and outbreaks associated with Hajj. RESULTS: The majority of the respondents (60 percent) expressed concern about the potential for infection transmission during Hajj. The respondents also reported having or knowing a colleague, a friend, or a family member with a history of infection during or after Hajj. However, the respondents' knowledge of the possible modes of infection of various diseases was limited. CONCLUSIONS: Hajj is associated with various risks of outbreaks, and thus, better protection-enhancing measures are required. Training personnel involved in health management, including planners, coordinators, and healthcare providers, can help reduce the risks and prevent potential outbreaks.

An insight into emergence of lumpy skin disease virus: a threat to Indian cattle.

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a highly infectious and economically devastating viral disease of cattle. It is caused by Lumpy Skin Disease Virus (LSDV) belonging to the genus Capripoxvirus and family Poxviridae. The origin of lumpy skin disease has been traced to Zambia, (an African nation) in Southern part during the year 1929. The first reported case of LSD besides Africa was from Israel, a Middle Eastern nation, thus proving inter-continental spread. Subsequently, the disease entered Middle East, Eastern Europe and Asia with numerous outbreaks in the recent years. LSD has emerged as a significant concern in the Indian sub-continent, due to outbreaks reported in countries such as Bangladesh, India, China in 2019. In the following years, other South and East Asian countries like Taipei, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bhutan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia, Pakistan, Indonesia and Singapore also faced severe outbreaks. At present, LSD is considered to be an emerging disease in the Indian sub-continent due to the recent status of disease. Considering the global scenario, LSDV is changing its transmission dynamics as evidenced by a shift in its epidemiology. As a result of high morbidity and mortality rate among cattle, the current outbreaks have been a major cause of socio-economic catastrophe. This contagious viral disease has eminent repercussions as the estimated monetary damage incurred is quite high. Despite having networked surveillance and comprehensive databases, the recurring outbreaks have raised major concern among researchers. Therefore, this review offers brief insights into the emergence of LSDV by amalgamating the newest literature related to its biology, transmission, clinico-pathology, epidemiology, prevention strategies, and economic consequences. Additionally, we have also provided the epidemiological insights of the recent outbreaks with detailed state wise studies.

Epidemic intelligence in Europe: a user needs perspective to foster innovation in digital health surveillance.

BACKGROUND: European epidemic intelligence (EI) systems receive vast amounts of information and data on disease outbreaks and potential health threats. The quantity and variety of available data sources for EI, as well as the available methods to manage and analyse these data sources, are constantly increasing. Our aim was to identify the difficulties encountered in this context and which innovations, according to EI practitioners, could improve the detection, monitoring and analysis of disease outbreaks and the emergence of new pathogens. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study to identify the need for innovation expressed by 33 EI practitioners of national public health and animal health agencies in five European countries and at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). We adopted a stepwise approach to identify the EI stakeholders, to understand the problems they faced concerning their EI activities, and to validate and further define with practitioners the problems to address and the most adapted solutions to their work conditions. We characterized their EI activities, professional logics, and desired changes in their activities using NvivoⓇ software. RESULTS: Our analysis highlights that EI practitioners wished to collectively review their EI strategy to enhance their preparedness for emerging infectious diseases, adapt their routines to manage an increasing amount of data and have methodological support for cross-sectoral analysis. Practitioners were in demand of timely, validated and standardized data acquisition processes by text mining of various sources; better validated dataflows respecting the data protection rules; and more interoperable data with homogeneous quality levels and standardized covariate sets for epidemiological assessments of national EI. The set of solutions identified to facilitate risk detection and risk assessment included visualization, text mining, and predefined analytical tools combined with methodological guidance. Practitioners also highlighted their preference for partial rather than full automation of analyses to maintain control over the data and inputs and to adapt parameters to versatile objectives and characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that the set of solutions needed by practitioners had to be based on holistic and integrated approaches for monitoring zoonosis and antimicrobial resistance and on harmonization between agencies and sectors while maintaining flexibility in the choice of tools and methods. The technical requirements should be defined in detail by iterative exchanges with EI practitioners and decision-makers.

Management of infodemics in outbreaks or health crises: a systematic review.

Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO) defined an infodemic as an overabundance of information, accurate or not, in the digital and physical space, accompanying an acute health event such as an outbreak or epidemic. It can impact people's risk perceptions, trust, and confidence in the health system, and health workers. As an immediate response, the WHO developed the infodemic management (IM) frameworks, research agenda, intervention frameworks, competencies, and processes for reference by health authorities. Objective: This systematic review explored the response to and during acute health events by health authorities and other organizations operating in health. It also assessed the effectiveness of the current interventions. Methods: On 26 June 2023, an online database search included Medline (Ovid), Embase, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Epistemonikos, and the WHO website. It included English-only, peer-reviewed studies or reports covering IM processes applied by health organizations that reported their effectiveness. There was no restriction on publication dates. Two independent reviewers conducted all screening, inclusion, and quality assessments, and a third reviewer arbitrated any disagreement between the two reviewers. Results: Reviewers identified 945 records. After a final assessment, 29 studies were included in the review and were published between 2021 and 2023. Some countries (Pakistan, Yemen, Spain, Italy, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, United Kingdom, United States, New Zealand, Finland, South Korea, and Russia) applied different methods of IM to people's behaviors. These included but were not limited to launching media and TV conservations, using web and scientific database searches, posting science-based COVID-19 information, implementing online surveys, and creating an innovative ecosystem of digital tools, and an Early AI-supported response with Social Listening (EARS) platform. Most of the interventions were effective in containing the harmful effects of COVID-19 infodemic. However, the quality of the evidence was not robust. Discussion: Most of the infodemic interventions applied during COVID-19 fall within the recommended actions of the WHO IM ecosystem. As a result, the study suggests that more research is needed into the challenges facing health systems in different operational environments and country contexts in relation to designing, implementing, and evaluating IM interventions, strategies, policies, and systems.

Breaking the Chain: Strategies to Stem Adenovirus Spread in Pakistan.

Adenovirus, a common respiratory pathogen, has witnessed a notable rise in incidence rates across various regions in Pakistan. Utilizing epidemiological data and climate records, this research discerns a potential linkage between the burgeoning adenovirus cases and alterations in regional climate patterns. Through statistical analysis and modeling techniques, the study aims to elucidate the relationship between climatic variables, such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation, and the prevalence of adenovirus infections. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing effective public health interventions and preparedness strategies to mitigate the impact of adenovirus outbreaks in Pakistan. Furthermore, this research contributes to the broader discourse on the intersection of infectious diseases and climate change, highlighting the need for comprehensive adaptive measures to address emerging health challenges in a changing environment.

Detection of dengue in German tourists returning from Ibiza, Spain, related to an autochthonous outbreak, August to October 2022.

In February 2023, German public health authorities reported two dengue cases (one confirmed, one probable) and four possible cases who travelled to Ibiza, Spain, in late summer/autumn 2022; the infection was probably acquired through mosquito bites. Case 1 visited Ibiza over 1 week in late August with two familial companions; all three developed symptoms the day after returning home. Only Case 1 was tested; dengue virus (DENV) infection was confirmed by presence of NS1 antigen and IgM antibodies. Case 2 travelled to Ibiza with two familial companions for 1 week in early October, and stayed in the same town as Case 1. Case 2 showed symptoms on the day of return, and the familial companions 1 day before and 3 days after return; Case 2 tested positive for DENV IgM. The most probable source case had symptom onset in mid-August, and travelled to a dengue-endemic country prior to a stay in the same municipality of Ibiza for 20 days, until the end of August. Dengue diagnosis was probable based on positive DENV IgM. Aedes albopictus, a competent vector for dengue, has been present in Ibiza since 2014. This is the first report of a local dengue transmission event on Ibiza.

Outbreak of carbapenemase-producing Citrobacter farmeri in an intensive care haematology department linked to a persistent wastewater reservoir in one hospital room, France, 2019 to 2022.

In 2019-2022, a prolonged outbreak of oxacillinase (OXA)-48-producing Citrobacter farmeri due to a persistent environmental contamination, occurred in our haematology intensive care unit. In April 2019, we isolated OXA-48-producing C. farmeri from rectal samples of two patients in weekly screenings. The cases had stayed in the same hospital room but 4 months apart. We screened five patients who had stayed in this room between the two cases and identified a third case. Over the following 3 years, five other cases were detected, the last case in September 2022. In total, eight cases were detected: seven colonised with the bacterium and one infected with a lethal outcome. All cases stayed in the same hospital room. We detected OXA-48-producing C. farmeri from a shower, washbasin drains and wastewater drainage of the bathroom of the hospital room. Molecular typing confirmed that all C. farmeri isolates from the environment and the cases were indistinguishable. Despite bundle measures to control the outbreak, the bacterium persisted in the system, which resulted in transmission to new patients. A design defect in the placement of wastewater drains contributed to the persistence and proliferation of the bacterium. The room was closed after the last case and the bathroom rebuilt.

Increased reports of measles in the Metropolitan City of Milan, northern Italy, September 2023 to March 2024.

Since late 2023, the Metropolitan City of Milan and surrounding areas (northern Italy) have been experiencing a resurgence of measles, with most cases detected starting from January 2024. During this brief period, we observed measles in travellers from endemic areas, participants in international events, vaccinees and healthcare workers. Indigenous cases have also been identified. Even though we have not yet identified large and disruptive outbreaks, strengthening surveillance and vaccination activities is pivotal to help limit the impact of measles spread.

Multiple introductions of monkeypox virus to Ireland during the international mpox outbreak, May 2022 to October 2023.

BackgroundMpox, caused by monkeypox virus (MPXV), was considered a rare zoonotic disease before May 2022, when a global epidemic of cases in non-endemic countries led to the declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Cases of mpox in Ireland, a country without previous mpox reports, could reflect extended local transmission or multiple epidemiological introductions.AimTo elucidate the origins and molecular characteristics of MPXV circulating in Ireland between May 2022 and October 2023.MethodsWhole genome sequencing of MPXV from 75% of all Irish mpox cases (182/242) was performed and compared to sequences retrieved from public databases (n = 3,362). Bayesian approaches were used to infer divergence time between sequences from different subclades and evaluate putative importation events from other countries.ResultsOf 242 detected mpox cases, 99% were males (median age: 35 years; range: 15-60). All 182 analysed genomes were assigned to Clade IIb and, presence of 12 distinguishable subclades suggests multiple introductions into Ireland. Estimation of time to divergence of subclades further supports the hypothesis for multiple importation events from numerous countries, indicative of extended and sustained international spread of mpox. Further analysis of sequences revealed that 92% of nucleotide mutations were from cytosine to thymine (or from guanine to adenine), leading to a high number of non-synonymous mutations across subclades; mutations associated with tecovirimat resistance were not observed.ConclusionWe provide insights into the international transmission dynamics supporting multiple introductions of MPXV into Ireland. Such information supported the implementation of evidence-informed public health control measures.

Rapid molecular epidemiology investigations into two recent measles outbreaks in Israel detected from October 2023 to January 2024.

Between late 2023 and early 2024, two measles outbreaks occurred in Israel, each caused by importation of measles virus strains of respective B3 and D8 genotypes. In this study, we validate transmission pathways uncovered by epidemiological investigations using a rapid molecular approach, based on complete measles virus genomes. The presented findings support this rapid molecular approach in complementing conventional contact tracing and highlight its potential for informing public health interventions.

Emergence of OXA-48-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in Lithuania, 2023: a multi-cluster, multi-hospital outbreak.

In 2023, an increase of OXA-48-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae was noticed by the Lithuanian National Public Health Surveillance Laboratory. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) of 106 OXA-48-producing K. pneumoniae isolates revealed three distinct clusters of carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniae high-risk clones, including sequence type (ST) 45 (n = 35 isolates), ST392 (n = 32) and ST395 (n = 28), involving six, six and nine hospitals in different regions, respectively. These results enabled targeted investigation and control, and underscore the value of national WGS-based surveillance for antimicrobial resistance.

A comparison of risk factor investigation and experts' opinion elicitation analysis for identifying foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) high-risk areas within the FMD protection zone of South Africa (2007-2016).

Foot-and-mouth disease is a controlled disease in accordance with the South African Animal Diseases Act (Act 35 of 1984). The country was classified by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) as having a FMD free zone without vaccination in 1996. However, this status was suspended in 2019 due to a FMD outbreak outside the controlled zones. FMD control in South Africa includes animal movement restrictions placed on cloven-hoofed species and products, prophylactic vaccination of cattle, clinical surveillance of susceptible species, and disease control fencing to separate livestock from wildlife reservoirs. The objectives of this study were to evaluate differences in identifying high-risk areas for FMD using risk factor and expert opinion elicitation analysis. Differences in risk between FMD introduction and FMD spread within the FMD protection zone with vaccination (PZV) of South Africa (2007-2016) were also investigated. The study was conducted in the communal farming area of the FMD PZV, which is adjacent to wildlife reserves and characterised by individual faming units. Eleven risk factors that were considered important for FMD occurrence and spread were used to build a weighted linear combination (WLC) score based on risk factor data and expert opinion elicitation. A multivariable conditional logistic regression model was also used to calculate predicted probabilities of a FMD outbreak for all dip-tanks within the study area. Smoothed Bayesian kriged maps were generated for 11 individual risk factors, overall WLC scores for FMD occurrence and spread and for predicted probabilities of a FMD outbreak based on the conditional logistic regression model. Descriptively, vaccine matching was believed to have a great influence on both FMD occurrence and spread. Expert opinion suggested that FMD occurrence was influenced predominantly by proximity to game reserves and cattle density. Cattle populations and vaccination practices were considered most important for FMD spread. Highly effective cattle inspections were observed within areas that previously reported FMD outbreaks, indicating the importance of cattle inspection (surveillance) as a necessary element of FMD outbreak detection. The multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis, which was consistent with expert opinion elicitation; identified three factors including cattle population density (OR 3.87, 95% CI 1.47-10.21) and proximities to game reserve fences (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73-0.92) and rivers (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07) as significant factors for reported FMD outbreaks. Regaining and maintaining an FMD-free status without vaccination requires frequent monitoring of high-risk areas and designing targeted surveillance.

Impact of Whole Genome Sequencing to investigate transmission of Serratia marcescens in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit.

Newborns admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICU) are at increased risk of health care-associated infections. Serratia marcescens represent the third most common pathogen in NICU outbreaks. Here we present an outbreak investigation performed using Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) analyses and the control measures implemented to limit the spread of S. marcescens in the NICU of an Italian hospital. In February 2023 S. marcescens was isolated from six newborns, when in 2022 this pathogen was isolated only from two samples in the same ward. Measures for infection prevention were adopted. Routinary surveillance screening, performed with rectal swabs collected at admission and weekly thereafter, was implemented to search for S. marcescens presence. Environmental samples were collected. All the isolates, obtained from the conjunctival swab of six newborns, from rectal swab of two newborns who did not develop infections, as well as from the aerators of two faucets, were sequenced. WGS analyses showed no correlation between the isolates from newborns and environmental isolates. The implementation of the measures for infection prevention and control had enabled us to successfully control the outbreak within a short period. WGS analyses proved to be crucial in outbreak investigation to limit the spreading of the pathogens.

Measles - United States, January 1, 2020-March 28, 2024.

Measles is a highly infectious febrile rash illness and was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000. However, measles importations continue to occur, and U.S. measles elimination status was threatened in 2019 as the result of two prolonged outbreaks among undervaccinated communities in New York and New York City. To assess U.S. measles elimination status after the 2019 outbreaks and to provide context to understand more recent increases in measles cases, CDC analyzed epidemiologic and laboratory surveillance data and the performance of the U.S. measles surveillance system after these outbreaks. During January 1, 2020-March 28, 2024, CDC was notified of 338 confirmed measles cases; 97 (29%) of these cases occurred during the first quarter of 2024, representing a more than seventeenfold increase over the mean number of cases reported during the first quarter of 2020-2023. Among the 338 reported cases, the median patient age was 3 years (range = 0-64 years); 309 (91%) patients were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status, and 336 case investigations included information on ≥80% of critical surveillance indicators. During 2020-2023, the longest transmission chain lasted 63 days. As of the end of 2023, because of the absence of sustained measles virus transmission for 12 consecutive months in the presence of a well-performing surveillance system, U.S. measles elimination status was maintained. Risk for widespread U.S. measles transmission remains low because of high population immunity. However, because of the increase in cases during the first quarter of 2024, additional activities are needed to increase U.S. routine measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination coverage, especially among close-knit and undervaccinated communities. These activities include encouraging vaccination before international travel and rapidly investigating suspected measles cases.